Research firm IDC is stirring some controversy today thanks to an analysis they posted which says that Windows Phone will overtake iOS by 2015. Say what? They’re basing this number on the assumption that Microsoft will pick up all of Nokia’s current market share with the Nokia shift to Windows Phone:
Nokia’s recent announcement to shift from Symbian to Windows Phone will have significant implications for the smartphone market going forward. “Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences,” added [senior research analyst Ramon] Llamas. “The new alliance brings together Nokia’s hardware capabilities and Windows Phone’s differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android.”
You know what? I love WP7, I think it’s a great OS, but this is clutching at straws. This assumes that Nokia won’t continue to hemorrhage smartphone customers like it has over the last few years. Even with WP7 on their side, they’re going to lose customers in the OS shift, not to mention their current negative inertia. The analysts are also pegging that iOS won’t gain any further marketshare, which I have trouble believing.
I agree that Blackberry is going down, though.